Reliable interpretation of extreme-heat energy response for sustainable campus management: Baseline, calendar, and chilled-water metering controls

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dc.authorid0000-0002-7118-6856
dc.authorid0000-0001-9720-9852
dc.authorid0009-0008-0959-311X
dc.contributor.authorCihangir, Cenk
dc.contributor.authorÖzyılmaz, Lale
dc.contributor.authorCoşkun, Yusuf
dc.date.accessioned2026-08-21T11:27:56Z
dc.date.available2026-08-21T11:27:56Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.departmentFakülteler, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Endüstriyel Tasarım Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.departmentFakülteler, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Mekatronik Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.description.abstractOpen hourly meter data are often used to infer how buildings respond to extreme heat, but the interpretation can depend on the analytical baseline, institutional calendar, and meter configuration. We examined 60 education and office buildings in the Building Data Genome Project 2 using repeated whole-week validation, temperature-matched placebo tests, 13 academic-calendar definitions, and same-building, common-hour carrier com parisons. A leakage-resistant change-point model that incorporated a previous-day, load derived operating-regime proxy reduced blocked-validation error relative to a conventional model in 58 of 60 buildings; temperature binning provided no additional predictive benefit after regime control. Recovery-related signals were uncommon: rebound was significant in 2 of 49 eligible buildings, load-shape disruption in 1 of 49, and the 72 h duration diagnostic in 3 of 60. At Fox, the BASE calendar supported term and break comparisons through 39–42 ◦C, but neither building-use group differed significantly after false-discovery-rate ad justment; estimates above 42 ◦C were inconclusive. In the matched sample of 13 education and 10 office buildings, no electricity-only, chilled-water-only, or weighted specification provided robust evidence of a between-group difference. Across 99 combinations of carrier weight, normalization, and temperature bin, every 95% interval included zero. Reliable campus benchmarking therefore requires out-of-sample baseline assessment, explicit calen dar sensitivity, common-hour meter matching, and carrier-specific uncertainty reporting before building-use rankings or resilience-related interpretations are made.
dc.identifier.citationCihangir, C., Özyılmaz, L., & Coşkun, Y. (2026). Reliable interpretation of extreme-heat energy response for sustainable campus management: Baseline, calendar, and chilled-water metering controls. Sustainability, 18(16), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168289
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su18168289
dc.identifier.endpage25
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.issue16
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/su18168289
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13055/1588
dc.identifier.volume18
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001860438500001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.indekslendigikaynak.otherSCI-E - Science Citation Index Expanded
dc.indekslendigikaynak.otherSSCI - Social Science Citation Index
dc.institutionauthorCihangir, Cenk
dc.institutionauthorCoşkun, Yusuf
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0002-7118-6856
dc.institutionauthorid0009-0008-0959-311X
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMDPI Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofSustainability
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectSustainable Campus Energy Management
dc.subjectBuilding Energy Performance
dc.subjectExtreme Heat
dc.subjectDistrict Cooling
dc.subjectChilled-Water Metering
dc.subjectOperating-Regime Proxy
dc.subjectAcademic Calendar
dc.subjectMeasurement and Verification
dc.titleReliable interpretation of extreme-heat energy response for sustainable campus management: Baseline, calendar, and chilled-water metering controls
dc.typeArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication

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